Soleimani Killing Who Will Be Impacted and How? | Security Risks Asia Humane ClubMade with Humane Club

Soleimani Killing Who Will Be Impacted and How?

Published Jan 05, 2020
Updated Mar 26, 2020

Fears of a WW 3 are however alarmist for now. We are not on that brink as none wants escalation possibly even Iran and the US. Yet limited conflagration cannot be ruled out.

So far So Good for U.S. President Donald Trump and the United States as reactions from Iran have been rhetorical – the  Death on Satan variety which are common when tensions run high and Tehran streets are flooded with anti US sentiment.

Domestically in America as well the reaction is mixed – Democrats have come out strongly against a unilateral Presidential action that could lead to a U.S. Iran war, will President Trump be able to weather the storm at home remains to be seen? Further afield there could be trouble brewing as Supreme Authority of Iran Ayatollah Khamanei roared, “Shahid (martyr) Soleimani is the international face of the resistance and all who have a heart-felt connection to the resistance seek his blood revenge,” what will be Iranian response be?

In anticipation oil futures have soared and stock exchanges have hit the pause button, the first to react to any signs of conflict in the Middle East, Bourses in Asia Pacific are particularly impacted as most oil and gas comes from this region.

Sustained Iran and US standoff can be anticipated, there is no going back on talks for now for both sides, at least till President Donald Trump holds fort in the White House.

Revenge as promised by Khamanei can come immediately before the opposition has had time to take guard or at a time and place of Iran’s choosing. Reports of rockets on an Iraqi Base with US troops have been received on 04 January. President Trump has already warned of that the US has over 50 Iranian targets in the cross hairs.

A wider response by Iran may be caliberated at a time of its own choosing and possibly at a time and place where the Americans are least expecting or prepared.

Iran has a range of options from missile attacks, proxy terrorist attacks, false flag operations to cyber attacks across a wide geographic area of the Middle East strewn with American bases.

Thus American bases, assets and citizens in the Middle East are most vulnerable – those in Iraq and Syria more so, while in Gulf countries may be spared, as Iran may not opt for geographic escalation.

A cyber attack on the US mainland on vulnerable financial or infrastructure facilities cannot be ruled out, these will be deniable by Iran to prevent escalation but the US may presume so and engaged some of the targets in Iran specified by President Trump.

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has vowed to take revenge and his targets may be Americans as well as Israel across the southern border if there is a pre-emptive move from that end

Widening of the conflict which at present is anticipated to be restricted to the US- Iran and Israel to the Arab Gulf countries other than Iraq will have a major impact for countries in the Indo Asia Pacific

India, Japan, China, South Korea, ASEAN economies are dependent on energy flows from the Gulf and any disruption due to conflagration will be devastating.

Not surprisingly all these have sought reconciliation and avoidance of escalation, but will the US and Iran listen remains to be seen?

For South Asian countries India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal there is an additional concern of millions of migrant workers in the West Asian belt, thus not surprisingly they were the first to seek de-escalation.

Afghanistan would be concerned of the Taliban walking away from a peace deal with the Americans fearing an attack on their leaders by the Americans having suffered once with killing of Mullah Mansour

Fears of a WW 3 are however alarmist for now. We are not on that brink as none wants escalation possibly even Iran and the US. Yet limited conflagration cannot be ruled out.