India Trend Tracker – October 01 to 16 | Security Risks Asia Humane ClubMade with Humane Club

India Trend Tracker – October 01 to 16

Published Oct 17, 2020
Updated Oct 17, 2020

India Trend Tracker covers key trends in India ongoing trends in defence and internal security, linked foreign policy and  socio- economic issues from October 01 to 16. Apart from ongoing India China standoff in Ladakh and related diplomacy and negotiating stance adopted by the two sides, a lot has happened during this fortnight in terms of demonstrations of strategic systems, QUAD ministerial meet and rejuvenation of Gupkar Declaration in Kashmir, here is a brief in tabulated form.

Country/Trend Development Past Trends Cumulative Assessment
India China Standoff EAM says Galwan Clash major set back – 16 Agreement for Disengagement and De-escalation Sep 10 Overall boundary dispute resolution remains complex.
  China – Infra build up root cause – 13 India China Senior Commanders meet – China gives proposal – 12. Defence Minister alleges Pak China  collusion – 12   Sixth meeting of Corps Cdrs previous meets have not achieved a breakthrough   Joint Statement 6th Senior Cdrs meeting framework for disengagement   Improvement of Defensive posture by both sides Post 5 point agreement of Foreign Ministers& Senior Commanders  a change in approach if any needs to be tracked.   Mechanics and time frame for disengagement awaited   High level of military readiness in case talks fail  
Global Diplomacy Modi Putin Call – 07 Modi – Netanyahu call – 05 Regular high level Expanding Russia, Israel outreach
Indo Pacific ShringlaBiegun talks – 13 India Japan Foreign Ministers talks, Cyber  Security agreement – 13 2nd QUAD Ministerial meet – 06 QUAD increasing interactions QUAD gradual build up of forum
Regional Diplomacy NIL SAARC in limbo post suspension of Summit 2016 Terrorism and connectivity issues preventing SAARC coop. Ltd coop COVID 19
India Pakistan Law minister attends SCO meet in India – 16 Denial of Pak claims of call out for talks – 15 Contested Relations Adds to ongoing disputations
Strategic Developments Night Trials Prithvi 2 – 16 Zoji La Tunnel work commences – 15 44 Bridges inaugurated – 12 Nirbhaya Cruise missile test aborted – 12 Atal Tunnel Inaugurated – 03 Shaurya Missile Test – 03 No First Use reaffirmed – 03 Enhancements of strategic capabilities Prioriotisation of infrastructure, strategic systems development in view of India China standoff.
Defence Cooperation           Army  VCOAS – visit PACOM – 16 Kazakh India Webinar, Expo– 16 Ambassadors Briefing on Aero India 2021 – 07 IN BN – Ex, Corpat – 02 US $ 90 million Sales C 130 J suppor Sustained traction of engagement in multiple domains.     Defence Indigenisation and Exports Sustained expansion of engagement on multiple tracks with partner nations
Defence Industry Rudram ARM test – 09 Test of SMART – 05 Rafale contract controversies   Sustained indigenisation   Concerns over long procedure of replacements emerge Capacity for absorption of offsets by Indian industry needs to be build up   Trial to production push essential by DRDO industry
Political Bihar Campaigning Elections due as term ends November COVID 19 challenge Politically significant amidst COVID 19 challenges.
COVID 19 Winter Caution by Health Minister – 11 Daily increase of over 90,000 in September Breaking chain essential
J & K Mufti released – 13 Gupkar Declaration – 15 Gupkar Declaration Congress Sp – 16 Farooq controversial statement on China – 11 Plans for Panchayat elections – 09 LG visits houses of Shopiyan victims – 08 Political activity sustenance     Likely challenges ahead
J & K Terrorism 180 militants killed – 12 Army rescues youth from terrorism – 16 Attack on BJP worker – 06 Shopian encounter bodies handed over to families – 03 Heavy LOC firing – 01 – 3 Army casualties Commitment to Universal rights by IA   Terrorists attempts to disrupt political process Sustained focus on Human Rights while carrying out targeted terrorist operations
UT Ladakh NIL Post UT declaration concerns of loss of Special Status under Article 370 Fragile socio economic zone, needs delicate nurturing to join mainstream.
North East Political parties hold meet, call for one solution – 15 Muivah no union with India – 16 CF NSCN R extended – 15 Meghalaya HNLC Parleys prospects – 08 ALP Disturbed  Area Status extended – 6 months – 02 Accord held up due to core difference Possibility of Accord w/o NSCN IM or keeping flag and Constitution pending
Left Wing Extremism LWE reject AtmaNirbhar Bharat – 10 Maoists claim killed 25 traitors – 09 LWE attempts to shift to Telangana   Targeting informers LWE attempting to sustain movement through transfer into states with security gaps
Hinterland Terrorism Bengaluru ISIS Module – 2 youth arrested – 08 Al Hind ISIS Module planned base in South India – 02 Attempts by al Qaeda to induct Indian youth Sustained surveillance essential
Socio Economic Farmers groups walk out talks with govt – 14 Finance minister economic stimulus for consumer spending – 12 RBI economy to contract 9.5 % India objects to UNHRC statement on rapes – 05 Protests over Hathras rape – 02 Reforms in agriculture and labor held up for years Consultations not held with farmers thus resistance to imposition anticipated.

This can be seen as a valuable one-point resource that covers major stability and conflict trends in point form. Contributions to capacity building in management of change and otherwise is also reflected with current development or event, linking with past trends and a cumulative assessment is provided.